GE05 LIVE: BBC EXIT POLL
Labour Majority: 66
Tories: 209 seats
Lib Dems: 53
Wow. Now that is exciting. Can Blair stay having had that kind of kicking?
Sound off in the comments - any predictions? Give a spread if you like.
I still think it’ll be 85-95 majority for Labour.
But, if the exit poll holds it means the opinion polls have overestimated the Labour vote again. It also says that Labour will lose the popular vote.
There are rumours doing the rounds (via BBC) that Blair’s agent is being “cagey” about the turnout in Sedgefield. Blimey.
UPDATE: Liam Fox (of all people) on the BBC made a good point - in 1992 the exit polls said a win for Kinnock.
Posted on May 5th, 2005 at 9:58 pm
| See also • GE05 LIVE: The spreads • General Election 2005 LIVE • The Last Word (until the next one) |
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Filed under 2005 General Election, UK politics |
I’ll be gutted if that’s all the LDs so. though I have suspected it all week.
Prescott 10.06pm
“There is going to be a Labour government, no doubt about that.”
6 minutes after the polls close and the “Wake up with Howard” sh**e is out the window.
Yeah… it’ll be a reasonable result, but I won’t be happy if that’s all the LDs get. Very disappointing.
Definitely a pisspoor night for the Lib Dems if the exit poll holds - what is that, a gain of seven? Not good.
I’m in Wirral West that Andrew Marr commented on, I was looking at the 2004 council election and Euro election results last night, I reckon it will be less than 500 votes in it.
Re: the LibDems, it may be a poor number of seats but if they increase their votes by 500k-1m as it seems that will be pretty good and the greater the disproportion the stronger the case for PR. A good fall in the proportionand actual votes Labour get will be most excellent whatever the total result because it cuts their mandate.
I’m still hoping the LibDems do better than the 2 seat gain predicted in the Exit Polls.
Taking in account a very quick survey of friends and family I’m not suprised the Conservatives are predicted to have done as well as this.
People are protesting against Labour but aren’t prepared to go as far as voting LibDem.
I’m not sure if Charlie’s position will be particularly secure if they only get 53 seats. I think/hope they’ll do better than that though.
I was going to draw on the 1992 election. There was a reluctance to admit to NOT voting Labour. Now there seems a reluctance to admit that people HAVE voted for Labour.
I hope.
Curious: but where do the LDs go if they decide to knife Kennedy? Ming Campbell could only be a bridgehead, but to what? Mark Oaten? Nobody on the progressive left is going to vote for him.
Durham city will be close. Down from 16,000 majority down to a few 100 to either the lib dems or labour (its a labour seat)
Libdems have been spending in target seats, so i think they will pick up at least 5 if not 10 seats…but they might lose a couple for taking they eye off the ball
Justin:
I’m honestly not sure. I like Charlie but if they only gain 2 seats most people, myself included, will say he’s missed an open goal.
Lets hope 2009 will be the first GE under PR. Public pressure could force the issue (if Blair really does end up with a small majority).
Comment #4 on Mike Smithson’s Betting at Political Betting.
“You may be right. I note that the Betfair market (which is still open) currently has the LibDems as clear favourites in Edinburgh South! That would be a remarkable scalp: it is LD target no.35; requires a large Lab to LD swing of 7% (not easy in a four-party country); and it is held by high-profile Labour Nigel Griffiths, the Minister at the Department of Trade and Industry responsible for Construction, Enterprise and Small Business (his own website - http://www.nigelgriffiths.co.uk/ - describes him as an MP - is that not illegal?)”
Some succour for the LD supporters amongst us?
Surely we know that the marginals are rather different to the overall figures. LDs could be 20+ more than the exit poll (even ignoring 92)
Bertie
It’s too much to hope for at this stage for us blues. I’d be amazed, frankly. And slightly relieved.
Have the exited the 5m postal voters?
This exit poll is nothing like it’s going to turn-out.
Shit, Natasha is such a waste of space.
But the battlefield is kick-ass
Bertie: Don’t you find her strangely mannish? I do.
Gender realignment?
She was born to be a ballroom dancer JUstin–the only way you know they’re female is through the make-up. Baudrillard knew all about this signification business.
I’m watching BBC (on CSPAN2) in NYC–your elections and coverage is so different. : >
who does the counting there? party volunteers? paid people?
Justin; you like Ann Coulter then?
Swing stats on Sunderland pleeeeese
oh, Chicken Yoghurt got a mention on CNN today–they have a horrible Inside the Blogs segment every day now.
Anyone other expats trying to follow this from abroad? I’ve got five live streaming but the BBC news site is really struggling, including their live stream of the BBC one broadcast.
I guess the first real “broadband” UK election is too much even for the BBC’s resources.
Anyway, just wanted to mention this since it only makes blogs such as this one even more helpful. It’s been great throughout the campaign to get a wide range of opinions outside of the usual sources (BBC, Guardian, etc).
4% swing to the Tories in Sunderland South. Mullin holds with 17000 votes, 11000 majority.
I remember watching 1997 on the beach in La Jolla, San Diego, Ingerland. Best place to do it. I was up for Portillo, and then went surfing.
Hove within a couple of hundred votes Justin?
AListair MacGowan on ITV–’you don’t do many politicians do you AListair?’
‘No, cos I’m crap…’
amberglow: as far as I know, volunteers do the counting and there is an Acting Returning Officer in charge of the overall count. He’s the geezer you see announcing the result. To find out why he is the Acting Returning Officer, look up Returning Officer on Wikipedia.
Bertie: This is my first election abroad - moved to Chicago in 2001, shortly after the last election. And yes, I was up for Portillo in ‘97.
Well, thanks to an earlier comment by Amberglow above, I’ve now got the BBC coverage on C-Span 2 on. I didn’t even know I got that channel!
how long till the next result? i’m getting impatient already - not a good sign…
Thanks Andrew.
Hopefully OLD Labour rule.
Amberglow: a mention on CNN? Really? Can you remember what they said?
Bertie: I actually thought Hove would go Tory by a much bigger margin than that. It’s not a natural Labour seat. It getting it in 1997 and then holding in 2001 is anomalous.
Then again, Edgbaston in Birmingham held for Labour too. It shows just how bad 2001 was for the Tories. If the exit poll is right, expect 2 years of Blair and Kennedy to spend more time with his family.
Amberglow: a mention on CNN? Really? Can you remember what they said?
They started with Guardian’s coverage and then went to you. There’s a transcript up here.–ABBI TATTON, CNN POLITICAL PRODUCER: And, remember that blanket that she was wearing when hiding from the media? Well, one knitting blogger has posted the pattern just recently. Here it is. Now you too can have your fashionable blanket to wear over your head when hiding from the media.
But, on to some politics across the pond. The voting in the U.K. is coming to an end in just about a half hour for the general election. Bloggers on both sides of the Atlantic are going to be live blogging the results as they come in. Over to chickyog.blogspot.com. This is Chicken Yoghurt. He has a round up there of all the people, live blogging, if you want to follow along the results. He is a lefty. This is Justin McKeating, a lefty blogger, but not a fan of Blair as you can see from some of these images here. “Vote Labor today and wake up with George Bush,” he says.
More blogging over at the Guardian Unlimited site. This is the left leaning Guardian newspaper. They have an election blog with a lot of coverage. There you can read the blog entries of big liberal lefty blogger over here, Markos from the “Daily Coast (ph),” he’s been over there covering the election, looking at the differences between the U.K. and American elections. His post today, “they don’t take too long over at these Brits,” remarking on the campaign cycle there. “Only about a month,” he makes the point, “so I must laugh when British journalist express relief that the grueling election is coming to a close.” A lot longer obviously over here. Back to you, Judy.
oh, here’s the link for CSPAN2’s streaming BBC coverage
CNN has this segment on every day, and it’s really bad (and awful tv–just 2 women surfing the net and showing homepages and quoting from them). I’m glad i found this place thru it tho. : >
The mention of Hove reminds me…Can anyone hazard a guess how well the Greens will do in Brighton Pavilion?
I voted for the Greens there in 2001 (I’m from Brighton) and I’ve heard they’ve a good chance of doing well this year, but have not followed the local campaign closely. Is Lepper standing again for Labour?
Yup, expat here, living in France and just got in from excellent dinner at les gourmets des ternes (we’re on a bank holiday - translates into four day weekend) to read the exit polls. I am also following an auction for a bike on french ebay. It’s all go with my ADSL. Woohoo for Firefox and tabbed browsing.
I’m very curious as to how, if at all, other expats reading voted. I proxied.
Oh god, it’s that twat from Deadringers now..
Just popped outside. Ilkley now appears to be under martial law for the visit of Mr Griffin. Four police vans running the streets. AT least we’re safe in our beds tonight
So what channel are those of you/us in the UK watching? I’m switching between SKY and BBC ONE (can’t bring myself to watch ITV).
Amberglow: Bloody hell. Thanks for the transcript. Wow.
BBC RYan.
Even if it means Natasha bloody kerplunk
I wish the Media would focus on the “inner” election that’s going on within Labour.
Shirley Williams reckons the LibDems are going to win Cardiff Central.
I’m watching BBC but it’s rubbish so far - they’re killing time until the results come in.
Ingerland: Lepper’s still standing in Brighton Pavilion. It’s supposed to be the Green’s best shot but I think polling’s showing Labour will hold.
Looking at the Exit Poll do you think wavering Labour Supporters actually listened to Blairs threat that a vote for LibDems will lead to a Conservative government?
Amberglow: thanks very much for the C-Span link. My local C-Span cable channel suddenly decided it was time for a 15 minute car dealership infomercial featuring the production values of an early 90s edition of The Word.
Katie: I’m afraid I’m one expat that didn’t vote. I’m waiting for internet voting to arrive, can’t be less reliable than postal voting, right?
anytime Justin : >
and ingerland : >
I’m watching BBC Scotland on BBC1. No idea why though.
Can anyone tell me who’s presenting on ITV? Not the other Dimbleby, I hope. They’re both quite annoying.
I’m going to stick my neck out and say that whilst the exit poll might be right in %age terms, the way it plays out in how actual seats are decided could be very wrong and we end up with a hung parliamnet or a Neo Labour majority of less than 30.
Ryan, the rumours are already flying in that the poll underestimates LD gains. We’re already seeing the spin going on Tory great results, even if Bliar’s party get 70 or 90 majority.
Bigger turnout than expected though?
Ryan: If they’re anything like me TB’s bare-faced scaremongering will have convinced them to vote against Labour even more than before.
ITV just managed to miss Sundeland North while talking about caricatures–yes, the other DImblebey..
that swingometer is hysterical–like a game show.
i’ve always wondered if the BBC just freezes Peter Snow between elections.
Nice one Justin - you really deserve it, it’s a great blog.
From the first two results so far it looks like Labour are taking a bit of a kicking - they are getting in but are dropping majority in safe seats.
Told you liveblogging was the way forward.
(Knobber…)
Hey, the swingometer is a fine british tradition. Before anyone gets going on postal voting from the US, I’d like to remind you that a Ghanese UN-trained election observer was visiting the US and declared himself “sceptical” about the touchscreen voting Jeb Bush was putting in in Florida. Ghanese people.
i’m looking for the first shot of the expression on Gordon Brown’s face.
Would that be ghanaean? I have not a clue…. Anyway, he thought the electronic voting was a swindle.
Are Margaret Beckett’s comments on the significance of the “immigration issue” an early indicator of the NuLab spin to get out of facing their own lies over Iraq? i.e. blame everyone else.
Hove very close?
Washington East have declared and the Labour candidate got in (it was a safe seat) but they are down a lot, as are conservatives but LibDems got more votes than before.
What is concerning me is the number of votes the BNP seem to be getting.
Shit, got two hours to go to our declaration and I’m on my third bottle of wine…
This Paxman-Hislop-Boris Johnson exchange is hilarious/absurd. I have to say, US elections do not seem to throw up such amusement/absurdity.
The wife helped me with the first bottle. Now she has retired to play on Fowl Words on miniclip.com and “give me a shout” before she goes to bed. If only she could understand the excitement that is live blogging! :-s
“Geoff Hoon, the invisible man of this election, for obvious reasons…”
classic
I’m starting a new thread on a post above this one.
Come follow me.
You know you’re getting older when first-time-voters get younger (BBC)