GE05 LIVE: The spreads
Nothing very interesting happening in the real world, so I’ve been hanging out with the spread firms and betting exchanges. Following the money is likely to be more accurate than believing some bloke working for a state broadcaster standing outside the polling station with a clipboard.
The differences between the spreads and the exit polls are interesting. Not much different in the Labour majority. But the Lib Dems seem to be trading about 10 seats above their 53 predicted by the BBC. They are currently buying on IG around 65; Cantor around 68. Both predict 250-ish for Labour and 205 for the Tories. A spinnable night for them all, then. But as you were for the third term.
UPDATE: Spreads again. There’s plenty of action on the seats front, but the vote shares have hardly shifted all night. The spreads: Labour 34-36; Conservative 33-35; Liberal Democrats 22-26. Some of our foreign readers may be wondering how that translates into a sizeable governing majority for one party. Some of our domestic visitors, too, I can tell you.
UPDATE @ 02:40: The scores on the doors so far:
LAB 224
CON 39
LD 23
UPDATE 2.55 a.m.: After being down in the mid 40s about an hour ago, Cantor are now saying the Labour majority will be 68-70, in line with BBC predictions.
(Posted by Election Night guest pundit Jarndyce.)
Posted on May 5th, 2005 at 11:55 pm
| See also • GE05 LIVE: BBC EXIT POLL • On Message • By the numbers |
Permalink • Trackback • Subscribe By Email • Print This Post • • • |
|
Filed under 2005 General Election, UK politics |
But what do the punters know that the pundits don’t?
“Both predict 250-ish for Labour and 205 for the Tories.”
That’ll be “350-ish for Labour”?
Where’s everyone gone? You should never have jumped threadc like that. You hear Blunkett and Paxman just now? Class TV (in an extremely aggravating way).
Doh, I missed a post. *feels sheepish*
You can provide your own Aberdeen/sheep jokes.
Sorry, Dave. Got way too many windows open here. Correct. Punters get all sorts of information, no? I told you earlier about Edinburgh South. That was money talking. Seems it may now be true.
If Labour’s majority is as reduced as early indications suggest, what of ID cards? Scottish Labour MPs voting to impose them on the English, or the whole shitty exercise dead in the water?
(God, if only Jon Culshaw was as funny as he thinks he is. He’ll be doing Tom Baker next.)
Justin: read “wisdom of the crowds” by james surowiecki, who, despite his terrible taste in titles, has a lot of very interesting examples to support his theory that the aggregated results of a large, diverse, non-expert groups of independently acting people with access to information are always better at predictions than small groups of experts.
Often even the best expert’s guess is not as good as that of the decision market as a whole. All markets are a form of decision market and betting is the one that adheres closest to surowiecki’s model.
He tells the story of the challenger disaster, how the stock market judged, within two days, that the company at fault was the one that was found, six months later, to have been at fault. Bloody good book. If you like Gladwell, you’ll like surowiecky, who is the new yorker’s financial writer.
CH: Yeah, I’m still trying to get the hang of the liveblogging.
I think I’ll stick to the comments unless something big happens.
Stop Press: Galloway ahead in Bethnal Green.
Hmm. That was a bit long and pretentious. Bottom line: read that book and you will find out why, more often than not, the punters are more right than the pundits.
How come ITV have got 11 for Labour whilst the BBC still have them at 4?
EK: Is ITV 2005’s answer to 2000’s CBS?
Cheers Kate - not at all pretentious. I’m immensely flattered that people like you are taking the time to broaden my mind.
Are we over here now?
ITV are trying the merkin thing of pre-declaring
SKY News are showing 5 as well so I’m sticking with the BBC.
Gorgeous ahead? That’ll put the cat amoung the pigeons.
ITV - are they really declaring ahead of the official announcements? Yikes.
Also Katie, people tend to make better decisions when money is on the line. (That’s why ideas like demand-revealing referenda work.) It sharpens the mind. If you’re into all that sort of thing there’s a UK blogger called Stumbling and Mumbling you’d probably like. Left wing, free-marketeering libertarian economist. Long title. Brilliant guy. Google him
BTW, info from Bow is rumour. 5 Live saying they haven’t even started the count yet.
Justin: Now I’m really blushing. Just an economics geek who likes the cartoons in the new yorker.
Thanks Jarndyce I will. You know, I work from home, and thanks to my ever expanding aggregator I am doing fewer and fewer hours a week. I really am fitting in in France. The lazy 35 hour goitres.
Katie: Do you not have a blog of youre own? Blogging’s the new black you know. According to the Guardian, at least.
Latest:
9% swing to LDs in Rotheram
6% swing to LDs in Vauxhall
Confirmed turnout still awful.
Putney
I have just puked
Scribble: Where do you stand on all this. Do you not think a few seats shaved off the Labour majority would be a good thing?
My blog is an expat-themed one. I keep politics out of it. I keep a sounding-off blog for my own political moments. It’s more for personal amusement and writing practice. I don’t promote it. My dad reads it. But that’s cause he had my vote.
I write both anonymously because I got threatened by some assyrians over an article I wrote at ak13.com, and my original blog from 2003 made it ridiculously easy to find me. My second piece for them was anonymous too as a consequence. I was a bit shaken by the whole thing.
I’d say Blair’s nose is starting to look pretty bloody. For better or worse…
Correction: My primary, public blog is an expat-themed one. I keep politics out of it.
Putney’s just fallen. But as I have explained at Militant Moderate, switches to the Lib Dems aren’t really a major factor at all. Here it’s just a direct switch in results for Labour and Tory candidates. What this goes to show is that too much hypothecating on safe seat swings is unproductive.
Katie, been very glad of anonymity with the BNP trying to find out who I am and where I live in this election. Think I might have read your assyrian piece, I have a blurred memory of the controversy…
Katie: That’s a real shame. It’d be great to see your writing - if you want to email me offsite I’ll keep it to myself.
If you decide to go public again let me know.
A majority of less than 60 is now odds-on with Betfair.
Bob Marshall Andrews thinks he’s lost Medway. Jesus, good news for Blair.
EK: I’d buy that for a dollar
He’ll be asking you to join his new group blog Katie next…he doesn’t ask everyone to join that *sob*
Justin - do want Labour to have a lower majority (even tho Labour supporter), but I want the Tories stamped on until gurgling for last breath.
Looking good for Lib Dems, which sits well with me, happy with Lib Dems thoughts on id cards and civil liberty.
CAN NOT STAND that people went anywhere near Tories in this election, though. Faith in human nature reduced.
Bob Marshall Andrews - the Stepford Blairites at Harry’s Place will love that.
Scribble: Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see the Tories consigned to the dustbin of history. On the other hand, Blair has abused his majority and it needs reigning in - badly.
I just heard that there was a 12% swing to the Lib Dems somewhere. I didn’t here where it was.
Welcome to vague news!
Less than 60 majority? Oh please let it be true.
PS - you nice people can call me Garry.
Majority of less than 60 now down to 2-to-1 on. Better night than I could’ve ever imgained.
Gary: Apparently the spread betters are buying a sub-60 majority
Oh the assyrian piece is easy enough to find. It wasn’t even about assyrians. It was about the country that used to be Assyria (iraq.) It was satire, and some guy with a google news feed (keyword “assyrian”) mistook it for simple misinformedness.
He posted to a bulletin board asking people to correct me and some people made very pertinent interesting comments, that opened my eyes to an issue that’s been forgotten: the “indigenous” people of Iraq and thei oppression by the Kurds. I took the time to visit the board, chat to people, do some reading. I might write a piece about modern day assyrians - very interesting.
The threats weren’t big. I just realised I should not be so easy to locate. Sorry to hijack server space for personal sob story. Election onwards!
This is shaping up to be a good night indeed.
Katie: Not my server - sob away!
Aye, like the Nazoreans (sp?) in southern Iraq, who’ve disapperaed over the last couple of decades–
But you’re right, UK election onwards, Prezzer back in
No overall majority is now trading at less than 7/1, down from 30+/1 a couple of hours ago.
What a fascinating election night. I don’t remember anything like this…
I love how the bbc news front page map of britain looks like it’s breaking out in hives.
The price on no overall majority is drifting again.
Ack… Our Hero Bob Marshall-Andrews is in grave danger.
Who is going to lead the fight against ID cards from within now?
The onwders of broadband to see those pustules spreading
Wow. If Marshall-Andrews is being pinged for the war something is definitely wrong for Labour.
“Who is going to lead the fight against ID cards from within now?”
The advantage of a low majority is that a lot more Bob M-A’s are going to spring up…
Will they have the guts to rebel and bring Blair down? I suppose if they know Brown is his replacement, they will.
Andrew Marr got it wrong - Gordon Brown said “I promise that we will learn…” not “We promise that we will learn…”
i’ve got a feeling Birmingham Edgbaston could be in soon. Traditional Tory seat held by Labour at the moment by the odious Gisela Stewart if I’m not much mistaken.
Blackburn up now
Bloody hell, the BNP beat Craig Murray.
Craig Murray - 2082 votes
Jack Straw - 17,562 and a majority of about 8,000 - down about a 1,000 from last time so the Mislim vote held up for Labour in Blackburn.
I wonder if the BNP in nearby Oldham was a bigger factor in thinking than Iraq.
Straw back. Satan chuckles.
War is Peace, etc.
Wait for the smug speech regarding “a renewed mandate”, etc
Bit depresssing, Blackburn.
Looks like a recount at Hove is on the cards.
Anyone here present know anyone who’s at the Hove recount?
Not the straw man…
Straw down 12%. Big drop but not a typical seat.
Getting more and more worried about my seat and the BNP
Bit depresssing, Blackburn.
Isn’t that from a Noel Coward play?
Bit depressing, Blackburn
It’s a poem by Betjeman
let me be the first to sing “10,000 holes in Blackburn, Lancashire”…
Come friendly bombs and drop on Straw…
Can someone explain to me why it seems to be the tacit agreement between the major political parties not to mention the BNP?
I mean, I think it is the duty of public political figures to condemn that kind of thing. Ignoring it, pretending that the increasing influence and popularity isn’t happening in an attempt to deny legitimacy surely means that voters are hearing only a “vote for us” message from them, and no rebuttals.
That’s what happened in France, and how LePen beat out Jospin. The Left wing REALLY needed some nosepegs to bring themselves to vote Chirac. The EU referendum polls switched this week by the way. Second TV broadcast far outstripped the first and he promised to ditch Rafarrin if the electorate goes for a yes.
Anyway, does anyone know a good reason that nobody mentions BNP?
is that what you call poetic justice?
Now, there was a lot of talk with Lib Dem bloggers before this election about proportional representation (as always).
If this turns out to be a drubbing for Labour, and Lib Dems end up doing very well, can we have at least a little concession that the great British public can, in fact, make their voices heard through the current system?
How sick is that - as Asian Mayor/Retuning Officer has just had to announce the result for ‘Nation Front - Britain Before Refugees’ in Peterborough
SNP have taken the Western Isles from Labour - and I’m buggered if I’m going to try the Gaelic for it.
Tory gain in Peterborough
It’s still very uncertain whether the Lib Dems really will do that well, despite the swing.
How many people carriers does Blair need to take his entourage to the count in Sedgefield!!??
Spread betting updating in real time. Click on the election icon on the right. (Cheers Jarndyce).
Come friendly bombs and fall on slough, for there is no hope for it now, there isn’t grass to graze a cow, swarm over death.
How do the 70’s get Betjeman and we get Andrew “I’ve heard of the rapping” Motion?
Excellent point Katie - ignoring the facists won’t make them go away.
Katie - there’s a school of thought which says that you should offer the BNP no platform so you don’t mention them or engage them.
I managed to annoy the NUS’s Womens Officer last week when she came out with that very line and I tore into her for not being more active and getting in their face on the issues.
Katie - I think that the idea is to give the BNP as little legitimacy as possible by ignoring them. Perhaps the other parties should take your advice, they do seem to be getting a disgustingly large number of votes.
Scribble - No, sorry. PR! PR! PR!
Matt: Cherie’s a good catholic and Tony’s soon to be if you beleive the rumour - so, they need loads.
That’s the link in the original post, btw. Good to know you read my carefully smithed words so closely, Just.
Only in Blair’s Britain could Andrew Motion be Laureate.
You’re a precious bastard, Jarn. That was three beers ago.
Scribble: Sorry, but the argument for PR are pretty much now unassailable. Time for proper democracy.
facists
er, fascists
Justin: lol - have they already had their “early night” do you think, or maybe they’re postponing it till later?
As an aside - who is that bloke who manages to say “this is absolutely fascinating” and make is sound as boring as hell?
Katie, everyone in Keighley went on about the BNP, and all the big name visitors did, without admitting that the rhetoric of both Tory and Labour encouraged their voters
bertie: yes, vote Tory, get NF-lite, vote Labour get Tory-lite.
Matt: the American guy? He’s the poor man’s Bob Worcester (MORI head honcho).
here we go…. Edgbaston
Edgbaston - Labour hold
Birmingham Edgbaston - check those postal votes
Where IS WOrcester? (I mean, I’m Wooster…)
Lib Dems end up with 61-64 MPs?
is Gisela Stewart having the op? She looks like she’s been taking male hormones.
I was really hoping she was going to lose that seat - bum…
Milburn has stood down from the Cabinet.
Straw’s on BBC now but complaining of an echo in his earpiece. I thought he was in love with the sound of his own voice.
Rumour: Galloway wins
DING DONG Milburn’s gone! That man really got on my nerves.
Peter Snow says…
I didn’t get the bike by the way. Someone outbid me by 50 cents.
Assuming a 200ish tory, 65ish lib dem and double digit majority for labour, what’s next?
I mean, I know everyone thinks Blair would have to go, but what kind of spin can we expect from him in his meagre and pathetic attempt to claw his way back onto the window ledge? What’s the line going to be?
Beeb’s first extrapolated forecast from real results -
LD 59
CON 201
LAB 357
Majority 68
Still Lab maj of 68
Hove about to declare? Did I hear that?
Hove result imminent
Barbara Roche gone in Hornsey - LD gain.
Also, since I am bad at maths, and you all seem so good, how many holds and how many gains?
katie: he’ll say that he is going to listen to the electorate and then carry on as though nothing has happened.
Bethnal Green due soon as well
Roche gone. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
Come on Will - Hove prediction? Tory I think
Great result in Hornsey–perhaps local issuse too?
OUCH, sorry about Hove Justin. At least, as well as your protest vote, you were in a position to influence others too. Cnn-featured blogger that you are.
Kaite - its not maths - I’ve got the BBC on TV plus 2 BBC real time feeds on the go from the net.
LAB -5
CON +3
LD +1
SNP +1
Hove held by Labour with reduced majority
Big move LD wise in Hove, just never enough anywhere
“that’s the war”, says Andrew Marr, as though we’d all missed something. After doing his best to play down all the leaks exposing Blair lies, now he’s going to have the brass-neck to pretend he was expecting this all along.
“Brighton’s a very trendy place. Maybe a little of it’s washing off on Hove…” says Dimbleby. Pffff.
Milburn is off to spend more time with his family. Again.
Anne Begg won in Aberdeen South, Pants! Lib Dem was only 1,300 behind.
No decapitation in Maidenhead - missed Teresa May by 6,000 or so
Unity: Who need the BBC when I have you lovely people? I prefer having a spot of editorial content that doesn’t have to be looked at by lawyers before it goes up.
Griffin with 4240? Holy crap.
Thinks: I have to remind myself that at 9pm tonight I would have been ecstatic with a Labour majority cut down to 68…
Nope, that’s a BAD result, that’s less than they got in the local elections in this constituency
Dimbleby: Cock.
I’m surprised about Hove to say the least. I felt sure that the Tories would take it back. Not that I voted for them (or Labour). I just thought that having had the junior minister for civilian casualties representing us for the last eight years something might have shifted.
CH: Milburn’s off to spend more time with his bank balance.
Bertie: Labour hold Keighley. That’s a scary turnout of the BNP though.
Shit! Griffin got over 4,000 votes
Cryer back in with slight increase in majority - the Tories lost out to BNP - Howard obviously not quite nasty enough for some
Interesting trend in Tory LD marginals - votes seem to swtiching straight from Labour to Tories not to LDs.
Looks like some of the Tories that bought into Blair in 97 & 01 are reverting to type.
No it’s not Justin, we’ll take that–reduction on last votes. They have 4,500 core voters. And that’s it
And he got over 6,000 in Oldham last time out
Blaenau Gwent: is the independent that won it the person who resigned from the labour party and stood against the women’s quota candidate?
I do dislike that kind of affirmative action leveling of the playing field - you’re addressing symptoms, not causes. It’s easier than long-term change, but it doesn’t make any of us better people.
Blair will get a kicking inside the party over the Blaenau Gwent result.
Nye Bevan’s seat gone because of the authoritarian bastard - some things we on the left won’t ever forgive.
here we go… Darth Campbell speaks!
The devil himself is on BBC1
New projection on Labour majority creeping up - now 76.
Spread betting markets were predicting 94 today - same markets were on the button in the US Presidential election when the polls were off.
WTF?
Campbell responsible for bringing GB back into the campaign?
Is there nothing the slimy bastard won’t try to take the credit for.
I’m glad he’s gone now, I could feel an invisible hand starting to choke the life out of me…..
Blaenau Gwent: is the independent that won it the person who resigned from the labour party and stood against the women’s quota candidate?
I think that says more about Blaenau Gwent than the idea of women-only shortlists, to be honest.
So, our glorious leader is back in Parliament. What can you say to Reg Keys?
Blair - 24,000+
Reg Keys got 4,252 - I make that a deposit saved which is a good result
Tony’s back. Looks uncomfortable though.
Is it just me or is Blair slowly turning into a Conehead?
Either that or one of the aliens out of “This Island Earth”
BBC have a very amusing headline: “voters decide government” Yeah, it’s called universal suffrage dipshits.
Tory’s gain Wimbledon - not sure if that’s a result or if they’ve just bought all the tickets for this year already.
Please, not another 4 years or so of those awful, self-righteous homilies.
Blair: Vindication. Vindication. Vindication.
Katie: I mean, I know everyone thinks Blair would have to go, but what kind of spin can we expect from him in his meagre and pathetic attempt to claw his way back onto the window ledge? What’s the line going to be?
I think we’re getting a hint of that line…
LD gaing in Cardiff Central confirmed - looks to be a massive swing - 17% +
Lab majority estimate revised up again to 80
Will: what’s he saying? I’m a sad loner expat with a national holiday tomorrow. feed me!
Also, I think that your comment about Blaenau gwent proves my point: it’s not a lack of women on the slate that’s stopping more women from getting into parliament. There are larger issues at hand.
Oh bollocks - the most irritating LD in the country, John Hemming has won Yardley.
LD gain Birmingham Yardley on a 9% swing. This’ll be the Rover effect - lets hope it affects the other South Brum constituencies.
G’night y’all
Katie, it’s a repeat of the “Labour must listen..” line that he came out with at the start of the last term. Nothing more interesting than that. A minor act of contrition about presentation rather than substance.
From Campbell to Blair and now IDS…
Can it get any worse? Will they exhume Thatcher next
Later, Bertie. Thanks for dropping by.
goodnight Bertie _ i’ll be off soon, too, although this has a kind of car accident-like fascination for me!
Matt:
Hemming win has nothing to do with the ‘Rover effect’.
There’s no more than around 200 households in Yardley with links to Rover - most car workers in the Area work for Jaguar and Land Rover.
Trust me, we’ve had Hemming running like a scalded cat on Rover trying not to mention his links to the Phoenix lot that ran the place into the floor.
He’s also universally loathed up here - even by his own party who’ll be rejoicing not at an LD win but because they’ll now be able to shunt him off to London and into a political siding well away from where he can cause any more damage to the rest of them.
Why are the Tories so happy with what is, in reality, a massacre?
Night Bertie…
Labour minister Stephen Twigg gone.
Galloway’s beaten Oona King by al accounts.
Shaping up to be a memorable one.
unity: thanks for that. of course, living in Erdington I wouldn’t have a clue about what goes on in Yardley
don’t i look stoopid!
Tories reckon they’ve got back Enfield.
Labour Press office talking in terms of a Galloway win in Bethnal Green.
Be interesting to see how long his ragbag legion of SWP nutballs and radical Islamists can hold together befor they start poking each other’s eyes out.
If I hear the word “historic” one more time…
Matt:
Since when did you say you live in Erdington??
Hemming’s still a twat anyway - be interesting to see what happens next. he reckons he’s going to stay on as a councillor, which would keep the Tory/LD alliance running BCC.
In one way this might not be such a bad result - plenty on our side want shot of Bore and with Hemming out of the frame and Tilsley rumored to favour a deal with Labour on the council, so long as Bore’s out of the Labour Group leadership this could turn out a win-win all round.
I know! If the Tories are going to win 200 seats they’d better get a bloody move on.
I mean, I’d like to see the Conservatives have enough of a loss to give them a push towards the libertarian ground, as the Notting Hill bunch’s obsession with John Galt shows it is destined to go if it wishes to win again, but I do indeed want to wipe the smile off his face.
Apropos of which, the songs that didn’t make it onto that ad were the Beatles “mr taxman,” and tears for fears “Everybody wants to rule the world” and my favourite “there she goes, miss america.” My suggestion? “She works hard for the money.”
i’m gonna sign off now. it’s been a “historic” liveblog, i think we can all agree.
Just got back from playing football (some things come before the election) and I see Labour have kept Brighton Pav. and Hove. Very interesting considering they seem to be struggling in the rest of the South, at first glance?
David Davis - 22,792
Back in with increased majority.
Cheers Matt - come back soon.
Lab held Brighton Pavilion? Shame. Have you got a link for the count, Ingerland?
unity: yep, Stockland Green, Erdington - under the oppressive regime of Sion Simon, Labour Party. I really must go now, so I’ll catch up with you all on the morrow hopefully.
Twigg’s face is going to be on an awful lot of papers tomorrow, with the picture of him eight years ago… He rolled his eyes again!
Katie:
Lot of Tory seats won’t declare until around 3:30 - 4:30 AM due to being mainly rural.
Twigg’s gone and looks sickened by it all.
link here, Justin.
Top be parochial for a sec…
The figures for Hove.
The swing away from Labout went almost entirely to the Lib Dems.
Lepper was anti-war, thoguh. He was never seriously in doubt was he?
Looks like the Greens really split the vote in Brighton Pavilion, great result for them (22%). Pleased for them but shame it’s let Lepper back in…
Two things I always remember about Enfield and ‘Portillo night’.
1. Portillto lost
2. He took his licks with remarkavle good grace - far better than Twigg has taken it tonight.
I think that was we’re Portillo started to re-invent himself as a human being.
Reg Keys on the BBC, now.
Cheers Ingerland - that’s a big swing away from Labour.
Reg Keys on BBC1
Get BBC1 on - Blair looks sick - Reg Keys speaking
Wow, the look on Tony’s face says it all.
Reg Keys: What a speech. And what a blank face from Tone.
This post has been removed by the author.
Will: The Greens were tipped to take Pavilion. It was supposed to be their first parliamentary seat.
But it was never realistic, Justin.
Not THE Kilroy unfortunately.
Reg Key’s - brilliant, brilliant man.
Blair blew a chance there - he should have tapped Keys on the shoulder and offered him an apology on the spot.
Gill gone in Leicester South, BTW - looks to have deserved it as he’s done next to nugger all since winning the By-election.
What did Reg keys say? My sound card’s buggered.
I agree, unity. The BBC did well to go back to that speech, because that was the real career killer tonight for Tony, and the papers will pick up on it.
Richard Taylor back in at Wyre Forest despite missing the division on Foundation Hospitals which was the only thing he ever promised to bloody vote on.
He said, very simply, that his son died in an illegal war for which Tony Blair has refused to apologise. And he said he’s still waiting for the day.
Keys made Blair look a very small man - a very small man indeed.
And he said 88 British soldiers had died, something not everyone was able to remember. A powerful moment all round.
Bloody noses all around basically?
Someone said, about question time last week, that the reason Blair is so easy to get het up is because he has a hard time understand why anyone could possibly disagree with him (was it you Justin? Can’t remember…) and this was why he altered and spun, to make sure people saw things his way.
You almost pity the poor man, the shaken faith. The self-doubt that now assails him. Well. Almost.
I think the Keys speech may be the Portillo moment of this election. I wish I’d had the video running. I could watch Blair’s face while Reg was speaking for ever.
Am I right in assuming that the Keys moment is the televisual moment of the night? Anybody looking at other channels?
On the shallow - what is Cherie wearing?
Is it me or are the Blairs strangers to dignity?
With any luck the Beeb might put it up as a video clip.
If they stream it I’ve got software to rip real media and asf streams down to quicktime, windows media and divX and I’ll arrange a d/l sight for it.
It’s one of the two difining moments of the night, along with Milburn bailing out of the cabinet which amounts to conceding that Brown will be the next leader.
Guildford’s up.
Oh shit - the Julian Clary clone in Guildford won - Tim Ireland will be pissed off
Unity: If you get the video of the speech give me a shout - I’d love to post it here.
Ah shit. Poor Tim.
Reg keys interview on ITV.
“strangers to dignity” *snicker*
They’re a bit like political Posh and Becks really.
Blair speaking on BBC1
“Historic third Labour victory”?
Tell that to all the ex-MPs looking for new jobs because of Blair’s hubris.
Well, didn’t Blair look uncomfortable during Keys speech. What a shame the Tory was too arrogant to stand down and give him a real run at the seat.
Well, it is historic.. but
We are the hollow men
We are the stuffed men
Leaning together
Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
Blair: “very, very proud of what we have done”.
Proud? He’s got a body count to rival a Schwarzaneggar movie.
Letwin hung on in Dorset West - another increased majority but not by much.
I’ve been checking the Guardian election blog, and it doesn’t exactly seem to be buzzing. Regular posts, but the comments aren’t insightful and don’t go anywhere.
Much more impressed with this blog - glad I found it a couple of days ago, wish I had earlier.
Quick process question, I know all the parties have different leader election policies, in amount of weight they put on general members versus PLP, what’s Labour’s?
Wow, an overall majority with just 36% of the vote? I must say, that should be a spur to electoral reform, in my opinion. Maybe even the Tories will see the sense in change now.
Ingerland: You’re too kind. The Guardian are latecomers to blogging and don’t really get it.
They’ve flown in Kos of Daily Kos fame to cover the election. He may be hot stuff in the States but he’s a fish out of water over here and it’s shown. I’ve been lacking insight tonight largely due to alcohol - what’s b