ELECTION 2007: Britain tosses a coin
Well, it’s rapidly becoming the perceived wisdom that Gordon Brown’s on a hiding to nothing whether he calls an election or not. If he doesn’t he’ll get a hammering for bottling it, and if he does he’ll get a hammering for some of the reasons I mention in the post below.
The million voteless voters story particularly has the potential to snowball big time and may well have a very real impact – the marginal constituencies swing on a couple of hundred thousand votes in total, if I remember rightly. (I actually counted up an election or two back and the total majorities across all the marginal constituencies added up to around 180,000 votes. Democracy, how are ya?)
Cameron’s in more of a win-win situation. I think he could possibly hold on to the leadership even if he loses. If he manages to shave Brown’s majority by a reasonable number he’ll still look good. He’ll be able to stand up and say, ‘look it was a snap election, and we had a pretty good result considering we had a matter of days to campaign’. Cameron will have extra ammunition if the mechanics of polling day go as badly as they could. He can accuse Brown of playing fast and loose with the democratic process.
And if the rumours about the amounts of cash the Tories are pouring into marginal constituencies are true, we might have a shock on the cards. Speaking personally, I’m rubbing my hands at being on the ground in super-marginal Hove. I’m going to try and enjoy it and at the very least, I think I can expect a lot of knocks on my door. I’ll be wearing my Marilyn Monroe dress and be anticipating the candidates working hard to blow up my skirt.
That said, I also think this’ll be another opportunity to push for electoral reform. Those in non-marginals whose votes don’t count will hopefully be screaming at the tops of their voices. I’ll be showing solidarity.
Posted on October 3rd, 2007 at 8:02pm under UK politics
| Related posts... • Marginal seats and Tory money again • At the margins • Levelling the field |
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• 5 Comments |
In a Tory/Lib Dem sort of marginal but I shall certainly be screaming. As an occasional panto dame, I might just join you regarding the Marilyn Monroe dress. Should make the door knocking blighters throw up!
If Brown is the strategist that some suggest he will let the Tories get worked into a lather, spend their money, and shoot their bolt, calmly declaring next week that there are no plans for an election in the near future. He has little to gain and quite a bit to lose (especially up here in Scotland where there is no mood for another election and where Labour could do quite badly should one be called.
hats off to dave…
I don’t know if you’ve heard, but I quite like the Conservative Party and what they stand for. Quite a lot, actually. In fact, just over six months ago I joined.
Enough of me. You knew this was coming.ÂÂ
Those of you who watch the news will…
The number of people who might not be able to vote means that Brown could well face a form of humiliation even if he wins the election. That must form part of his thinking, surely.
… [Cameron]’ll be able to stand up and say, ‘look…’
You’re confusing Cameron’s disarmingly off-the-cuff style with Blair’s disarmingly off-the-cuff style. I think that’s probably the point.